The Transport strategy of St. Petersburg until 2025

3. Forecast Parameters of TLC Development

Currently, the unstable world economic situation does not contribute to creating a system of full and reliable forecast data that can define TLC development parameters both in long-term and medium-term perspectives.

The demand for TLC services will depend on a series of external and internal conditions that determine the world market development trends and directions of social and economic development of the Russian Federation in general and Saint Petersburg in particular.
The TLC development forecast is presented in 3 variants (inertial, energy raw material-oriented, innovative) basing on scenarios of the Russian Federation transportation system development until 2030, determined by the Transportation Strategy, with regard to the Russian Federation social and economic development forecast for 2010 and the planning period of 2011-2012, set forth by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
Forecast volumes of cargo and passenger transportation, areas of terminal and warehouse infrastructure in TLC for the period until 2030 are shown in the Annex to the Strategy.

Analysis of the TLC development forecast variants leads to the conclusion that the innovative variant shall be the target for long-term state policy of Saint Petersburg in TLC development.

The innovative TLC development variant implies that TLC significance for supporting the Russian Federation foreign trade relations will be retained. By 2015 the cargo base volume of foreign trade transit transportation through Saint Petersburg will reach 81 million tons, by 2030 – 115 million tons.
Big Port of Saint Petersburg will keep following the objective trend of withdrawing mass cargoes export traffic from the terminals. This will be assisted by construction in accordance with the established procedure and setting into operation of newly-built sea terminals for bulk cargoes transshipment in the Leningrad region and other subjects of the Russian Federation.  

The post-crisis period is anticipated to strengthen the trend of increasing cargo containerization rates. By 2030 container cargoes will become the main type of cargoes in the total cargo turnover of Big Port of Saint Petersburg. The significant part of cargo turnover will include refrigerated and ro/ro cargoes. This tendency is based on competitive advantages of Big Port of Saint Petersburg in comparison with foreign ports of the Baltic sea and Russian ports, among them the smallest land haul distance to the main consuming centers of the Russian Federation, as well as opportunities for providing a wide range of additional cargo services by TLC companies.

Sea terminals that are situated within the historically established areas of Big Port of Saint Petersburg in the Kirovsky district of Saint Petersburg have no territory reserves for development. After 2015 the main increase of cargo turnover of Big Port of Saint Petersburg will be reached owing to development of outer harbours near Bronka railway station, in the towns of Lomonosov and Kronstadt.

The cargo turnover of the terminals of Big Port of Saint Petersburg will reach 76.7 million tons by 2015, among that, container cargoes - up to 36.2 million tons; by 2030 –108 million tons, including 68.6 million tons for container cargoes.

The number of passengers transported by sea in Saint Petersburg will increase more than twofold by 2015 in comparison with their number in 2008 and will reach 1.1 million people. By 2030 the number of 2.5 million people will be exceeded.

The volume of cargo transportation along the Volga-Baltic Waterway will recover to reach the 2008 level (18.2 million tons) not later than 2012. Gain in cargo transportation volume by 2015 will equal nearly 26 percent to the level of 2008 (22.9 million tons).

The major growth is to be observed due to increasing the volume of transportation of construction materials, fertilizers and ferrous metals (for export). After eliminating infrastructure constraints on the limiting zones of the Volga-Baltic Waterway the volume of cargo transportation will rise up to 26 million tons by 2030.
The volume of passenger transportation by sea in Saint Petersburg is anticipated to reach 1.5 million people by 2015 and 2.8 million people by 2030.
The total volume of local railway cargo operations in Saint Petersburg by 2013 will return to the figures in 2008 (59.9 million tons). The increase is forecast to reach 66.5 million tons by 2015 and 75.4 million tons by 2030.

Nearly 90 percent of all transportation activities will account for oil products, metals, mineral construction materials (primarily, non-metallic) and fertilizers. Containerization growth for cargoes transported by railways of Saint Petersburg is expected (from 8 percent of the total volume of the local cargo operations in 2008 to 16 percent by 2015 and to 20 by 2030). The major volume of local operations involving high-capacity containers (65-80 percent) will be performed at the port railway stations.

Percentage of foreign trade transportation in the local railway cargo turnover within the boundaries of Saint Petersburg will rise from 47 percent in 2008 to 50 percent in 2015 and 55 percent in 2030.

Foreign trade transit transportation through the Saint Petersburg's railway junction is anticipated to be 47.6 million tons by 2015, by 2030 – 54.4 million tons. Relocating transit transportation with destination to Finland and the Russian ports situated on the northern part of the Gulf of Finland out of Saint Petersburg  will become feasible after accomplishment of the projects of relocating freight traffic to the new Petyaarvi-Kamennogorsk line and organizing high-speed passenger transportation on the existing Saint Petersburg-Vyborg-Buslovskaya line and constructing in accordance with the established procedure of the railway bypass of Saint Petersburg, provided by the Strategy of Development of Railway Transportation, and the project of withdrawal of Moskovskaya Sortirovochnaya railway yard outside the boundaries of Saint Petersburg.

By 2015 the total passenger traffic in long-distance and local communication at railway junction terminuses will rise by 30 percent reaching 12.9 million people in comparison with 2008, by 2030 – by 70 percent reaching 16.1 million people.

Increase in passenger transportation volume after 2015 will be assisted by reallocation of some part of the passenger traffic (up to 1.5 million people) from air transport to railway transport due to setting a new high-speed railway between Moscow and Saint Petersburg into operation.
The determinant factors for air transportation development in Saint Petersburg will be:
construction in accordance with the established procedure of a new centralized passenger terminal, construction and reconstruction in accordance with the established procedure of airfield facilities and other infrastructure objects of Pulkovo aeroport;
development of a base air carrier in Pulkovo aeroport.

Everything mentioned above will set the conditions for forming a regional transfer junction in Pulkovo aeroport - a hub for the region of Northern Europe.
The volume of passenger traffic in Pulkovo aeroport in 2015 will equal 15-17 million people, the volume of cargo transportation – 40-42 thousand tons. By 2030 the volume of passenger traffic will rise up to 25-30 million people, the volume of cargo transportation will reach 108-115 thousand tons.
The volume of cargo transportation by motor transportation in Saint Petersburg will go up to 137 million tons (25 percent higher as compared to the 2008 level) by 2015, by 2030 – 200 million tons (85 percent higher as compared to the 2008 level).

The volume of international passenger transportation by motor transport in Saint Petersburg will increase more than twofold by 2030 as compared to 2008 and will reach 1.65 million people; the largest growth is expected in the number of passengers travelling to the EU countries. The total volume of passengers transported in inter-city communication will rise by 25 percent by 2030 in comparison with 2008 and will equal nearly 1.75 million people.

The withdrawal of warehouse facilities from the central districts of Saint Petersburg to the territories outside Ring Road around Saint Petersburg, including to the adjacent Leningrad region, will be continued.    

It is anticipated to locate Class A+, A and B+ warehouse facilities on the territory of Saint Petersburg, with their total area of 1,970 thousand sq. m. by 2015 and 2,600 thousand sq. m. by 2030.